Mina aktier i Mobiclear har under rekordstor omsättning stigit med smått otroliga 145 procent på 2 dagar. Nytt personligt rekord vad gäller tiden att spräcka 100 procent på en aktie. Även rekord i procentuell uppgång på en dag med 127 procent.
6 kommentarer:
Anonym
sa...
Det kan man kalla fingertoppskänsla... Stort grattis! /M
Tackar! visst är det alltid intressant med nedtryckta aktier som stiger under ovanligt hög omsättning, men så mycket hade jag kanske inte räknat med. Gjort någon affär på sistone?
Nä jag har legat rätt lågt i det trista klimatet som varit. Tyks har ju börjat klättra så där kanske jag minskar lite snart om mycket annat ligger kvar nedtryckt. Funderar på ökningar i pwe eller efr samt att plocka in pearl. Får se hur det blir. /M
OK. Ja, många aktier är ju nedtryckta, men faktum är ju att TSX Venture inte gått ned så värst mycket. De som tagit mest stryk verkar vara de som det pratas mest om på svenska forum. Kanske är det som är porblemet när det är så låg omsättning i aktierna, småsparare styr kurserna.
TYKS tog ju såklart tagit fart när jag sålde hehe...men jag grämer mig inte så mycket då pengarna jobbat bra på annat håll.
China Agritech som jag pratat om tidigare är verkligen ett riktigt fynd. Jag har läst de 6 senaste kvartalsrapporterna samt ett antal analyser på branschen som sådan och det är verkligen en klockren placering. du kan läsa en analys gjord av en mycket duktig skribent på SH som kortfattat sammanfattar det mesta tycker jag. Jag klistrar in den nedan och läs den när/om du har tid och lust. Verkligen enorm potential och liten risk, inte vanligt. De har visat en stadig vinsttillväxt och värderas extremt lågt jämfört med andra kinesiska bolag inom samma bransch med samma vinsttillväxt (p/e 9.4), men framförallt kommer de tre nya fabrikerna och skattelättnader (från 40 % till 25 %) göra sitt på vinsten. Något som absolut inte är inprisat i dagens kurs. Migao som jag också köpt hade liknande kursutveckling innan det tog fart på allvar. Marknaden har inte fått upp ögonen för detta bolag ännu. Jag låter nästan som om jag vore nyfrälst hehe...
FIRSTLY, PRE-FINANCING…
- Insiders own 60% & Pinnacle China Fund owns 8% of the stock
- Modest number of shares (19.1M) and few options (125k @ $3.50) issued
- Annual revenue growth is outstanding (from 2002 to 2006 it was 6.4M, 12.2M, 15.9M, 25.3M, & 29.5M; guidance for 2007 is 46-48M)
- Quarterly revenue growth is also excellent (Q1 2007 was 8.6M vs. 5.7M in Q1 of 2006)
- Gross margin was a healthy 52.0% in 2006 vs.49.3% in 2005; in Q1 of 2007 it was 52.4% vs. 49.6% in Q1 of 2006.
- Annual net income growth is very good (from 2002 to 2006 it was 1.7M, 2.0M, 3.8M, 3.7M, and 5.3M; guidance for 2007 is 8.4-8.6M or $.44-.45/share)
- Quarterly net income growth is also very good (Q1 2007 was 1.9M vs. 1.0M in Q1 of 2006)
- The company’s tax rate, which averages somewhere in the neighbourhood of 40%, should decline to 25% next year because of recent changes to Chinese tax law. This should boost net earnings by something in the order of 25% which, using current 2007 guidance, yields an eps of $.55-.56.
- Guidance for 2007 includes only partial operation of all plants. Including full operation should boost eps to something in excess of $.65 (an educated guess)
- The IR rep advised me that CAGC hopes to go to a regular stock exchange in the second half of 2007. Regardless of the time frame, when it does happen we can expect a much higher earnings multiple. Two other Chinese fertilizer companies with similar growth profiles, Migao (MGO,TSX) and Hanfeng (HF,TSX) trade at trailing twelve month p/e’s of 22 and 52 respectively. (Ref. QIS Capital comparison charts, 20 June 2007). Assuming a p/e of 20, 2008 eps of say $.65 yields a price target of $13.00.
- Note: for those of you who think I’ve lost my mind, take a look at some other Chinese growth companies that trade on regular stock exchanges and see if you can find many with a trailing 12 month p/e of less than 20. And, I haven’t allowed for any internally funded (or debt funded) 2008 growth! I do think that an 18 month price of $15-20 is achievable.
- All of the above is contingent on the company being able to successfully manage its high level of advances to suppliers and its very high level of accounts receivable from farmers. Regarding the latter, the major risk as I see it is from a wide-spread catastrophe, like a weather-related crop failure.
- A minor point, but possibly important is that CAGC is eyeing the possibility of international sales, which might be a future growth area for the company. Places like India, with its growing middle class, might be a large potential market for organic fertilizers.
SECONDLY, THE FINANCING ITSELF…
- At a 25% discount to the market, the financing was expensive and the large number of shares issued will be dilutive unless the company can do well with its new granular line. It will take some time (6-12 months?) before we know the full impact of these plant expansions. One would think that management has a handle on the earnings implications of the financing/expansion and that they project accretion (notwithstanding the discount), but it’s a large unknown for investors. I would like to have seen them go to a recognized stock exchange before doing the private placement so as to avoid the large discount.
- One good news tidbit in the private placement news release was the reaffirming of 2007 guidance. When the CEO wagers 1.1M of his own shares that guidance will be met, that gives investors a very warm feeling.
- Another good news part of the private placement is that there were no warrants attached to it. On reflection, perhaps this shows that management, like many of us, recognize how extremely undervalued the company was and that a warrant issue might have been even more dilutive than the discount in the long run. Just to expand on this a bit, on the Venture Exchange, we often see a discount of say 10% to the market, plus the issuance of either half or full warrants at a price of say 10% above the market. In this case, the non-issuance of warrants is definitely worth something. I’m not sure if it fully makes up for the extra 15% discount to the market, but in the longer term, it just might.
LASTLY, SUMMARY…
- After some reflection, I think that an 18 month target of something in excess of $13.00 is still quite achievable, but the company will have to show that the financing wasn’t dilutive and they will have to manage the balance sheet well.
- In the meantime, we can expect say $.14 in eps for Q2 of 2007. Perhaps that will give us something positive to dwell on while the company builds those granular lines. And, if the company decides to expand further, perhaps they might consider adding a little debt to the mix.
OK jag ger mig...hehe. Har plockat in China agritech nu. Ser ju verkligen grymt bra ut. Hoppas jag får anledning att tacka för tipset så småningom. Rochester fick lämna portföljen. /M
Kan ju kanske kännas bra att ha nåt mer än uran- och guldaktier, så känner jag iaf.
Ta en titt på Migao och Hanfengs kursutveckling över en tvåårsperios eller liknande. De var liksom CAGC riktiga sidledsaktier trots stark utveckling. Hoppas och tror på en liknande utveckling för CAGC, men ett listbyte kan nog ändra på det ganska snabbt.
6 kommentarer:
Det kan man kalla fingertoppskänsla... Stort grattis! /M
Tackar! visst är det alltid intressant med nedtryckta aktier som stiger under ovanligt hög omsättning, men så mycket hade jag kanske inte räknat med. Gjort någon affär på sistone?
Nä jag har legat rätt lågt i det trista klimatet som varit. Tyks har ju börjat klättra så där kanske jag minskar lite snart om mycket annat ligger kvar nedtryckt. Funderar på ökningar i pwe eller efr samt att plocka in pearl. Får se hur det blir. /M
OK. Ja, många aktier är ju nedtryckta, men faktum är ju att TSX Venture inte gått ned så värst mycket. De som tagit mest stryk verkar vara de som det pratas mest om på svenska forum. Kanske är det som är porblemet när det är så låg omsättning i aktierna, småsparare styr kurserna.
TYKS tog ju såklart tagit fart när jag sålde hehe...men jag grämer mig inte så mycket då pengarna jobbat bra på annat håll.
China Agritech som jag pratat om tidigare är verkligen ett riktigt fynd. Jag har läst de 6 senaste kvartalsrapporterna samt ett antal analyser på branschen som sådan och det är verkligen en klockren placering. du kan läsa en analys gjord av en mycket duktig skribent på SH som kortfattat sammanfattar det mesta tycker jag. Jag klistrar in den nedan och läs den när/om du har tid och lust. Verkligen enorm potential och liten risk, inte vanligt. De har visat en stadig vinsttillväxt och värderas extremt lågt jämfört med andra kinesiska bolag inom samma bransch med samma vinsttillväxt (p/e 9.4), men framförallt kommer de tre nya fabrikerna och skattelättnader (från 40 % till 25 %) göra sitt på vinsten. Något som absolut inte är inprisat i dagens kurs. Migao som jag också köpt hade liknande kursutveckling innan det tog fart på allvar. Marknaden har inte fått upp ögonen för detta bolag ännu. Jag låter nästan som om jag vore nyfrälst hehe...
FIRSTLY, PRE-FINANCING…
- Insiders own 60% & Pinnacle China Fund owns 8% of the stock
- Modest number of shares (19.1M) and few options (125k @ $3.50) issued
- Annual revenue growth is outstanding (from 2002 to 2006 it was 6.4M, 12.2M, 15.9M, 25.3M, & 29.5M; guidance for 2007 is 46-48M)
- Quarterly revenue growth is also excellent (Q1 2007 was 8.6M vs. 5.7M in Q1 of 2006)
- Gross margin was a healthy 52.0% in 2006 vs.49.3% in 2005; in Q1 of 2007 it was 52.4% vs. 49.6% in Q1 of 2006.
- Annual net income growth is very good (from 2002 to 2006 it was 1.7M, 2.0M, 3.8M, 3.7M, and 5.3M; guidance for 2007 is 8.4-8.6M or $.44-.45/share)
- Quarterly net income growth is also very good (Q1 2007 was 1.9M vs. 1.0M in Q1 of 2006)
- The company’s tax rate, which averages somewhere in the neighbourhood of 40%, should decline to 25% next year because of recent changes to Chinese tax law. This should boost net earnings by something in the order of 25% which, using current 2007 guidance, yields an eps of $.55-.56.
- Guidance for 2007 includes only partial operation of all plants. Including full operation should boost eps to something in excess of $.65 (an educated guess)
- The IR rep advised me that CAGC hopes to go to a regular stock exchange in the second half of 2007. Regardless of the time frame, when it does happen we can expect a much higher earnings multiple. Two other Chinese fertilizer companies with similar growth profiles, Migao (MGO,TSX) and Hanfeng (HF,TSX) trade at trailing twelve month p/e’s of 22 and 52 respectively. (Ref. QIS Capital comparison charts, 20 June 2007). Assuming a p/e of 20, 2008 eps of say $.65 yields a price target of $13.00.
- Note: for those of you who think I’ve lost my mind, take a look at some other Chinese growth companies that trade on regular stock exchanges and see if you can find many with a trailing 12 month p/e of less than 20. And, I haven’t allowed for any internally funded (or debt funded) 2008 growth! I do think that an 18 month price of $15-20 is achievable.
- All of the above is contingent on the company being able to successfully manage its high level of advances to suppliers and its very high level of accounts receivable from farmers. Regarding the latter, the major risk as I see it is from a wide-spread catastrophe, like a weather-related crop failure.
- A minor point, but possibly important is that CAGC is eyeing the possibility of international sales, which might be a future growth area for the company. Places like India, with its growing middle class, might be a large potential market for organic fertilizers.
SECONDLY, THE FINANCING ITSELF…
- At a 25% discount to the market, the financing was expensive and the large number of shares issued will be dilutive unless the company can do well with its new granular line. It will take some time (6-12 months?) before we know the full impact of these plant expansions. One would think that management has a handle on the earnings implications of the financing/expansion and that they project accretion (notwithstanding the discount), but it’s a large unknown for investors. I would like to have seen them go to a recognized stock exchange before doing the private placement so as to avoid the large discount.
- One good news tidbit in the private placement news release was the reaffirming of 2007 guidance. When the CEO wagers 1.1M of his own shares that guidance will be met, that gives investors a very warm feeling.
- Another good news part of the private placement is that there were no warrants attached to it. On reflection, perhaps this shows that management, like many of us, recognize how extremely undervalued the company was and that a warrant issue might have been even more dilutive than the discount in the long run. Just to expand on this a bit, on the Venture Exchange, we often see a discount of say 10% to the market, plus the issuance of either half or full warrants at a price of say 10% above the market. In this case, the non-issuance of warrants is definitely worth something. I’m not sure if it fully makes up for the extra 15% discount to the market, but in the longer term, it just might.
LASTLY, SUMMARY…
- After some reflection, I think that an 18 month target of something in excess of $13.00 is still quite achievable, but the company will have to show that the financing wasn’t dilutive and they will have to manage the balance sheet well.
- In the meantime, we can expect say $.14 in eps for Q2 of 2007. Perhaps that will give us something positive to dwell on while the company builds those granular lines. And, if the company decides to expand further, perhaps they might consider adding a little debt to the mix.
OK jag ger mig...hehe. Har plockat in China agritech nu. Ser ju verkligen grymt bra ut. Hoppas jag får anledning att tacka för tipset så småningom. Rochester fick lämna portföljen. /M
haha, bra! då slipper jag tjata mer...
Kan ju kanske kännas bra att ha nåt mer än uran- och guldaktier, så känner jag iaf.
Ta en titt på Migao och Hanfengs kursutveckling över en tvåårsperios eller liknande. De var liksom CAGC riktiga sidledsaktier trots stark utveckling. Hoppas och tror på en liknande utveckling för CAGC, men ett listbyte kan nog ändra på det ganska snabbt.
hade!
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